Burundi’s head of state, Évariste Ndayishimiye, and his Congolese counterpart Félix Tshisekedi on the eve of the signing of the peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda in Washington, 4 December 2025 © Presidency of the Republic of Burundi

Under pressure from the Congo River Alliance (CRA)/M23 troops since the capture of Goma, then Bukavu in early 2025, Uvira – the second city of South Kivu – fell on 10 December. The city lies just a few kilometres from the Burundian border where Ndayishimiye’s troops, allied with the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC), had retreated.

Since then, the rebels have withdrawn, the Congolese army has gradually regained control of the city, but the threat of regional escalation has not been ruled out.

1. What will be Évariste Ndayishimiye’s priorities?

During the last summit, the city of Bukavu fell into the hands of the CRA/M23 rebels. This capture, in the middle of a political meeting, symbolised the powerlessness of African diplomacy.

Indeed, it was the American and Qatari peace processes that recorded the most notable results. Long in gestation, the AU mediation was relaunched on 17 January in Lomé, Togo, with the formalisation of the role of five facilitators supervised by Togolese President Faure Gnassingbé.

DRC: M23 withdrawal from Uvira puts pressure on Washington and Doha

These emissaries have just completed a tour of the Great Lakes region, where they met Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Ndayishimiye. They will then have to submit their report to the new AU president, who is expected to use his mandate to insist on compliance with commitments made.

It is the first time that the small Great Lakes country, often in the shadows, takes the helm of the AU. It is certain that for the Burundian president, this conflict will be a priority. But many top-tier political dossiers will also be discussed, to silence critics of the AU’s ineffectiveness.

2. What other crises will be discussed?

The stalemate in the Sudanese conflict, despite coordination frameworks and efforts put in place by the AU, is one of the biggest challenges of this summit.

The capture of El-Fasher in late October by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of General Mohamed Hamdan ‘Hemeti’ Dagalo after a two-year siege resulted, according to American researchers, in tens of thousands of deaths. It confirmed the failure of the mediations undertaken so far.

Is Ethiopia’s Abiy helping RSF in Sudan’s civil war?

The Peace and Security Council is due to meet at the ministerial level on this subject on 10 February. The body is chaired by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, whose country shares a long border with Sudan. The Egyptian president will present his report to the heads of state on 14 February.

The recognition of Somaliland by Israel on 26 December 2025 is another burning issue.

“States could push for a declaration of support for Somalia,” said one diplomat.

In the AU’s eyes, the self-proclaimed Republic of Hargeisa is an integral part of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s country, already very fragile due to terrorist attacks by Al-Shabaab.

3. Why are Gabon and Guinea returning?

It took nearly five years for Mamadi Doumbouya, and a little less than two for Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, for the African Union to reverse the suspension of their two countries following unconstitutional changes of government and the overthrow of Alpha Condé and Ali Bongo Ondimba in 2021 and 2023.

The two putschists, now elected with titanic scores – 86.72% of the vote for Doumbouya, 94.85% for Oligui Nguema – arrive triumphantly in Addis Ababa on 14 February for their first summit surrounded by their counterparts.

Gabon: The fall of the house of Bongo

For their part, supporters of the other Sahelian putschists point to a double standard.

The presidents of the Alliance of Sahel States (AoSS), Abdourahamane Tiani, Assimi Goïta and Ibrahim Traoré, have not organised any presidential elections, and the mediation undertaken by Ndayishimiye, designated by the AU in July 2025, has so far yielded no results.

4. Why will Giorgia Meloni be present?

The heads of state summit will be marked by the presence of the Italian prime minister as the guest of honour. This will be the first time a foreign leader has participated in the summit since France’s François Hollande in May 2013, on the occasion of the organisation’s 50^th anniversary. Giorgia Meloni is due to speak at the opening of the summit.

Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s strategic team pitching her ‘new deal’ with Africa

The Italian leader is coming to defend her Mattei Plan for investment in Africa, launched at an Italy-Africa summit in January 2024.

Its second edition will be held on 13 February, on the sidelines of AU ministerial meetings in Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia is one of the recipient countries of investments among 14 other African nations, such as Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya.

Meloni hopes to dry up migratory flows to Europe by investing $6.5bn in Africa. She has visited Tunisia several times, but also Algeria.

5. Should the AU participate in the G20?

For the first time in its history, the G20 summit was hosted by a country on the continent: South Africa.

The AU participated as a member for the first time. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will present the conclusions of this summit during a briefing scheduled for 14 February.

He should be congratulated for the successful holding of the G20, which marked a diplomatic achievement for South Africa, but also a painful passage due to the smear campaign by the US, which boycotted it.

South Africa has moreover been banned from the next summit in Miami. Will the AU react?

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Present in Johannesburg for the summit on 22 and 23 November, the new chair of the AU Commission Mahamoud Ali Youssouf will assess the organisation’s participation in such a platform.

The issue of developing countries’ debt, which particularly concerns African countries, was mentioned in the final communiqué.

Countries are also committed to working for lasting peace in Sudan and the DRC. Will that be enough?

The continent risks being neglected by the American presidency of the G20, which supports neither the expansion of the group to other members nor the tendency to invite guest countries.